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Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Structural Analysis of Downside Risk

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Abstract

The global collapse in economic activity triggered by individual and policy-mandated responses to the spread of COVID-19 is unprecedented both in scale and origin. At the time of writing, U.S. GDP is expected by professional forecasters to contract a staggering 6 percent over the course of 2020 driven by its 32 percent collapse in the second quarter (measured at an annual rate).

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  • Martin Bodenstein & Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Jay Faris & Nils Gornemann, 2021. "Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Structural Analysis of Downside Risk," FEDS Notes 2021-02-01-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-02-01-2
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2806
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