IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/103343.html

Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation

Author

Abstract

We comprehensively document 1,265 Federal Reserve staff alternative scenarios presented to the Federal Open Market Committee in publicly released materials from 1968 to 2020. Scenarios grew in frequency and sophistication, typically spanning a range of outcomes around the baseline. We construct a taxonomy with six categories: aggregate demand, aggregate supply, external risks, financial conditions, fiscal policy, and expectation shifts. Staff qualitative risk assessments complemented the scenario composition. Comparing scenario forecasts to realized outcomes, the most accurate scenarios often anticipated major macroeconomic developments even when magnitudes were missed, revealing the value and limits of scenario analysis for central bank risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward P. Herbst & Scott R. Konzem & Cristina Scofield, 2026. "Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103343
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2026.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026033pap.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2026.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Bodenstein & Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Jay Faris & Nils M. Gornemann, 2021. "Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Structural Analysis of Downside Risk," FEDS Notes 2021-02-01-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Lorenzo Buratta, Ivan & Pinheiro, Tiago, 2025. "Sovereign loan guarantees and financial stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.