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From Pink Slips to Polling Stations: The Electoral Consequences of Mass-Layoff Announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Hernandez Martinez
  • Pawel Krolikowski

Abstract

We study how mass-layoff announcements affect electoral outcomes using a newly assembled dataset of US establishment-level administrative notices from the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. A matched event study compares same-state counties with and without sizable WARN-announced layoffs. Controlling for local labor-market conditions, layoff announcements increase the Democratic-Republican vote margin by reducing Republican votes and increasing Democratic votes without clearly altering election winners or incumbent support. Effects appear across political offices, are not driven by manufacturing decline, and are geographically localized. The responses operate through turnout composition rather than vote switching and result in no policy-induced changes in transfer payments.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Hernandez Martinez & Pawel Krolikowski, 2026. "From Pink Slips to Polling Stations: The Electoral Consequences of Mass-Layoff Announcements," Working Papers 26-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:103764
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202621
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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