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Determinants of Expected Returns at Public Defined-Benefit Pension Plans

Author

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  • Raj Aggarwal
  • John Goodell

Abstract

Estimated expected returns are important for pension plans, as they influence many plan characteristics including required asset levels, annual contributions, and the extent of plan under- or overfunding. Yet, there seems to be little prior literature on the factors influencing these estimated future returns. In an attempt to fill this gap, this paper presents the results of a panel analysis of data on the determinants of such returns used by US public defined-benefit (DB) pension plans for the period 2001?2011. As expected, we find that real return estimates by DB public pension funds are positively related to fund size, fund age, international asset diversification, state income, and corruption levels. However, more interestingly and importantly, we document that real return estimates by public US DB pension funds are positively related to cultural measures of individualism and masculinity, and negatively related to uncertainty avoidance. These results should be of much interest not only to scholars and pension benefi ciaries, but also to fund managers, other capital market participants, and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Raj Aggarwal & John Goodell, 2015. "Determinants of Expected Returns at Public Defined-Benefit Pension Plans," Working Papers (Old Series) 1508, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1508
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201508
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    Cited by:

    1. Mayur Ankolekar & Ramnath Shenoy & Nandan Nadkarni & Rajendra Shah, 2016. "Indian Defined Benefit Pension Plans: Evidence on Investment Risks, Fund Mandates and Funding Levels," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 41(4), pages 355-383, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public pensions; defined benefit pensions; estimated returns; public policy; pension underfunding; finance and culture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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