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Hysteresis e o comércio exterior de produtos industrializados brasileiros


  • Kannebley Júnior, Sérgio
  • Mendonça, Diogo de Prince
  • Camargo Scarpelli, Maíra


This article investigates the hypothesis of hysteresis for the Brazilian manufactured exports and imports in recent years. For that it was used an empirical measure of strong hysteresis (macroeconomic) developed by Piscitelli et al. (2000) and tested its significance in sectoral supply and demand equations for exports and in sectoral equations for import demand. The results shows that Brazilian manufactured exports are strongly determined by international demand, being the empirical measure of real exchange rate expressed by the ratio between international prices and export prices nationals the relevant measure to explain the export performance. With respect to the hysteresis hypothesis, it was rejected for the aggregate of manufactures exports, but accepted in some industrial sectors. For imports this hypothesis was accepted for aggregate of manufactured imports and for ten industrial sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Kannebley Júnior, Sérgio & Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Camargo Scarpelli, Maíra, 2010. "Hysteresis e o comércio exterior de produtos industrializados brasileiros," Textos para discussão 253, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:253

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    Cited by:

    1. Castilho, Marta & Menéndez, Marta & Sztulman, Aude, 2012. "Trade Liberalization, Inequality, and Poverty in Brazilian States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 821-835.

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