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A Tale of Two Countries: Emissions Scenarios for China and India


  • Emanuele Massetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euromediterranean Center for Climate Change)


The aim of the paper is to present evidence that China and India are, and will remain, two very different actors in international negotiations to control global warming. We base our conclusions on historical data and on scenarios until 2050. The Business-as-Usual scenario (BaU) is compared to four Emissions Tax scenarios to draw insights on major transformations in energy use and in energy supply and to assess the possible contribution of China and India to a future international climate architecture. We study whether or not the Copenhagen intensity targets require more action than the BaU scenario and we assess whether the emissions reductions induced by the four tax scenarios are compatible with the G8 and MEF pledge to reduce global emissions by 50% in 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Massetti, 2011. "A Tale of Two Countries: Emissions Scenarios for China and India," Working Papers 2011.24, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.24

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    Cited by:

    1. Gambhir, Ajay & Napp, Tamaryn A. & Emmott, Christopher J.M. & Anandarajah, Gabrial, 2014. "India's CO2 emissions pathways to 2050: Energy system, economic and fossil fuel impacts with and without carbon permit trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 791-801.

    More about this item


    Climate Change; China; India; Energy Efficiency; Energy and Development;

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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