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El futuro del sistema de pensiones: demografía, mercado de trabajo y reformas

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  • Sergi Jiménez
  • Analía Viola

Abstract

Las tendencias demográficas auguran una pirámide poblacional invertida en España para los próximos 30 años. La alta esperanza de vida, el descenso del número de nacimientos y una mayor tasa de dependencia anticipan el cambio radical del paradigma demográfico. En este contexto la idoneidad y la naturaleza del sistema de pensiones establecido en los 60 y los 70 no han sido nunca realmente cuestionadas. Se han sucedido numerosas reformas, que, pretendiendo reducir la generosidad, en realidad no resuelven el problema, ni tampoco abordan el encaje entre el mercado de trabajo y el sistema de pensiones. Especialmente sangrantes son las dos últimas reformas, que, condicionadas por la sostenibilidad política y la presión de los ya jubilados, expanden el gasto y, en menor medida, el ingreso. Una posible solución a la espiral de ingresos y gasto es guiar la generosidad del sistema repartiendo los futuros incrementos de salarios reales entre aumentos nominales de derechos de pensión y reducciones de la generosidad, lo que probablemente contaría con el apoyo de mayores y jóvenes. El sistema de jubilación activa debería contar principalmente con una pensión compatible con el trabajo en todas las edades, sin penalización después de la edad normal de jubilación y con penalización dependiente del nivel salarial antes de la edad normal de jubilación.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergi Jiménez & Analía Viola, 2023. "El futuro del sistema de pensiones: demografía, mercado de trabajo y reformas," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2023-15, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2023-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michele Boldrin & Pilar García-Gómez & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2010. "Social Security Incentives, Exit from the Workforce and Entry of the Young," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, pages 261-294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pilar García-Gómez & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall Castelló, 2017. "Health Capacity to Work at Older Ages: Evidence from Spain," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Capacity to Work at Older Ages, pages 269-300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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