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Reforming Pensions in Europe: Economic Fundamentals and Political Factors

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Abstract

This paper analyzes pension reforms in Europe and their determinants. As pension reforms are intrinsically difficult to define and pinpoint, we introduce an alternative measure of pension reforms by comparing long-term forecasts of pension expenditures for seventeen European countries. The larger the decrease in expected spending on public pensions in 2050 between two base years, the more successful a pension reform the country achieved (after controlling for other factors, such as demography). Our analysis shows that the reform effort varies widely across countries and over time. Indeed, only three countries in the EU managed to reduce their expected spending on pensions in both reference periods. In the second part of the paper, we analyze factors that may facilitate or hamper pension reform – quality of fiscal institutions, public debt, trade unions’ influence, and also demographic factors. Only the measure of trade union power proves to be significant in explaining pension reforms. Other factors, such as quality of fiscal institutions, size of the existing funded pillar, public debt or recent demographic developments, do not seem to play a significant role. However, specific pension system factors – most significantly the lagged change in pension expenditures – are significant and suggest that European governments do reform their pension systems when faced with the threat of escalating pension expenditures. In conclusion, we propose a hypothesis of “bounded” economic rationale of European governments, as they seem to react to expectations of an increase in pension spending, but they seem to be content with the current spending levels. The appendix gives detailed information on pension reforms in the ten Central and Eastern European countries that became EU members in 2004 and 2007 (EU-10).

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  • Ondřej Schneider, 2009. "Reforming Pensions in Europe: Economic Fundamentals and Political Factors," Working Papers IES 2009/08, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2009_08
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Jahoda & Jiøí Špalek, 2009. "Pension Reform through Voluntary Opt-Out: The Czech Case," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(4), pages 309-333, Oktober.
    2. Špačková Zuzana, 2015. "Laboratory Experiments in Teaching Public Economics and Policy," Central European Journal of Public Policy, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 196-206, May.
    3. Grech, Aaron George, 2010. "Assessing the sustainability of pension reforms in Europe," MPRA Paper 27407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Grech, Aaron George, 2012. "Evaluating the possible impact of pension reforms on future living standards in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51296, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Grech, Aaron George, 2013. "How best to measure pension adequacy," MPRA Paper 46126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Marhanum Che Mohd Salleh & Mohammad Abdul Matin Chowdhury & Siti Salwani Razali & Nan Nurhidayu Megat Laksana, 2020. "Retirement Schemes, its Challenges and Ways of Reformation: A Cross-Border Study," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(9), pages 507-520, September.
    8. Aaron George Grech, 2018. "What Makes Pension Reforms Sustainable?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-12, August.
    9. repec:cep:sticas:/161 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Heinemann, Friedrich & Hennighausen, Tanja & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, 2011. "Intrinsic work motivation and pension reform acceptance," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-045, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. repec:cep:sticas:/172 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Zapji Ymélé Aimé Philombe, 2022. "Interest Charges and the “Said†Ageing-related Expenditures: A Study of OECD Countries," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 15(3), pages 7-23, December.
    13. Grech, Aaron George, 2014. "Evaluating the possible impact of pension reforms on elderly poverty in Europe," MPRA Paper 57639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Grech, Aaron George, 2013. "Pension reform sustainability in the EU: a pension wealth-based framework," MPRA Paper 48800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jana Tepperová & Stanislav Klazar, 2012. "Vliv sociálních systémů a jejich koordinace na ekonomickou migraci [The Impact of Social Systems and their Coordination on Economic Migration]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(4), pages 505-522.
    16. Malgorzata Gumola-Kardas, 2021. "Change in a Pension System: A Manageable and Measurable Process?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3B), pages 421-433.
    17. Sabina Hod?i? & Lucija Rogi? Duman?i? & Emira Be?i?, 2019. "Financial stability of pension system in the European Union member states," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912130, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension system; European Union; pension reform; fiscal institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights

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