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Estimation of the J-Curve in China


  • Jaleel Ahmad

    (Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Montreal, Canada)

  • Jing Yang

    (Economics, Concordia University, Ottawa, Canada)


This paper investigates whether a J-curve can be detected in the time series data on China's bilateral trade with the G-7 countries. It utilizes cointegration and causality tests to ascertain the long-run relatedness, and the short-run dynamics, between the real exchange rate, national income, and the trade balance. There is some evidence that a real depreciation eventually improves the trade balance with some countries. But there is no indication of a negative short-run response which characteristics the J-Curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaleel Ahmad & Jing Yang, 2004. "Estimation of the J-Curve in China," Economics Study Area Working Papers 67, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp67

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    Cited by:

    1. Tze-Haw Chan & Hooi Hooi Lean & Chee-Wooi Hooy, 2014. "A macro assessment of China effects on Malaysian exports and trade balances," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 18-37, January.
    2. Huseyin Kalyoncu & Ilhan Ozturk & Seyfettin Artan & Kahraman Kalyoncu, 2009. "Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 115-128.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2010. "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 212-223, June.
    4. Mahesh Kumar Chaulagai Ph.D., 2015. "Testing the J-Curve Hypothesis: A Case of Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 27(1), pages 17-36, April.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-458 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bustamante, Rafael & Morales, Fedor, 2009. "Probando la condición de Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva-J: Evidencia empírica para el caso peruano," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, pages 103-126.
    7. Khieu Van, Hoang, 2013. "The effects of the real exchange rate on the trade balance: Is there a J-curve for Vietnam? A VAR approach," MPRA Paper 54490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jul 2013.
    8. Chan, Tze-Haw & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2010. "China-Malaysia’s Trading and Exchange Rate: Complementary or Conflicting Features?," MPRA Paper 25546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chan, Tze-Haw & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2011. "China-Malaysia’s long run trading and exchange rate: complementary or conflicting?," MPRA Paper 33585, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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