The Contribution of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) to Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the EU

This paper provides an EU-wide assessment of the potential contribution of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, assuming full implementation of the measures included in national Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs) as described at the cut-off date of the analysis. Building on the methodology used in the Commission’s NextGenerationEU (NGEU) Green Bond reporting, the analysis translates quantitative output indicators from national RRPs into estimated annual GHG emission savings using a harmonised, output-based approach. The results indicate that RRF-supported investments can generate approximately 54 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO₂e) of annual emission savings (around 1.5% of EU emissions in 2021), while RRF-supported reforms contribute 52 MtCO₂e in annual emission savings (around 1.4%), based on a subset of measures that can be quantified. The estimated mitigation effects are concentrated in energy efficiency and sustainable mobility for investments, and in renewable energy and clean energy infrastructure for reforms.The analysis also highlights significant cross-country variation, driven primarily by differences in sectoral composition, national baseline conditions and methodological coverage, rather than differences in the RRPs’ climate ambition. Estimated impacts should be interpreted as indicative, as the analysis excludes financial instruments and measures lacking quantifiable outputs, implying that results represent a lower-bound estimate. Overall, the findings suggest that the RRF makes a meaningful contribution to the achievement of the EU’s climate targets, as well as the acceleration of the energy transition, through both its investment and reform components. The analysis also illustrates the importance of robust indicator design for future policy evaluation.