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The fiscal and distributional impact of possible tax reforms in the Netherlands

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  • Vos, Klaas de

Abstract

This paper uses the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD to assess how three types of tax reform would affect the state budget and the income distribution in the Netherlands. After briefly introducing the Dutch tax system and the case for and against these reforms, we investigate the effects of (1) introducing a flat income tax rate, (2) reducing the mortgage interest deduction and (3) shifting the state pension contribution to income tax, and of combining these reforms. Notably, the analysis does not include possible effects of these reforms on, e.g., the labour market and/or the housing market, but assesses the ceteris paribus effects of the reforms on the state budget and on poverty and inequality.Depending on the choice of the various parameters of the reforms both the budgetary and the distributional effects may vary widely. We show that the budget deficit may increase or decrease in combination with both increases and decreases in inequality and poverty. So, an optimal tax reform could be chosen depending on the preferences with respect to the budget and the income distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Vos, Klaas de, 2012. "The fiscal and distributional impact of possible tax reforms in the Netherlands," EUROMOD Working Papers EM9/12, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em9-12
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    File URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/euromod/em9-12.pdf
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    1. Alari PAULUS & Andreas PEICHL, "undated". "Effects of Flat Tax Reforms in Western Europe on Equity and Efficiency," EcoMod2008 23800105, EcoMod.
    2. Paulus, Alari & Peichl, Andreas, 2009. "Effects of flat tax reforms in Western Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 620-636, September.
    3. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2009. "Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Micro Estimates of Tax Evasion Response and Welfare Effects in Russia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, pages 504-554.
    4. Anna Ivanova & Michael Keen & Alexander Klemm, 2005. "The Russian ‘flat tax’ reform," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(43), pages 397-444, July.
    5. Sutherland, Holly, 2001. "EUROMOD: an integrated European benefit-tax model: final report," EUROMOD Working Papers EM9/01, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Sutherland, Holly & Immervoll, Herwig & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 1999. "An introduction to EUROMOD," EUROMOD Working Papers EM0/99, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    7. D�ra Benedek & Orsolya Lelkes, 2008. "Assessment Of Income Distribution And A Hypothetical Flat Tax Reform In Hungary," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 173-186.
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