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Assessing ecological sensitivities of marine assets to oil spill by means of expert knowledge

Author

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  • Carey, J.M.
  • Knapp, S.
  • Irving, P.

Abstract

__Abstract__ Existing methodologies to assess risk due to vessel traffic often do not account for damages to marine assets in case of oil or chemical spills from ships. While some socio-economic damages can be quantified in monetary terms, expert knowledge is often the only way to assess potential damages to the marine ecology. The use of expert knowledge introduces a source of uncertainty. We propose a method which minimizes recognized flaws in subjective assessments by eliciting sensitivity ratings from multiple assessors and recognizing their differences of opinion as a source of uncertainty. We also explore various scoring options to reflect overall expert opinions. We develop and apply the methodology to the Victorian coastline in Australia and believe that improved assessment can assist policy makers of any maritime nation to make better informed decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Carey, J.M. & Knapp, S. & Irving, P., 2014. "Assessing ecological sensitivities of marine assets to oil spill by means of expert knowledge," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2014-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:51749
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Knapp, S., 2013. "An integrated risk estimation methodology: Ship specific incident type risk," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vander Hoorn, S. & Knapp, S., 2014. "A multi-layered risk exposure assessment approach for the shipping industry," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2014-14, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Vander Hoorn, Stephen & Knapp, Sabine, 2015. "A multi-layered risk exposure assessment approach for the shipping industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 21-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expert knowledge; environmental sensitivities; oil pollution; uncertainty; Kendall’s coefficient of concordance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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