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Where is the middle class? Inequality, gender and the shape of the upper tail from 60 million English death and probate records, 1892-2016

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  • Cummins, Neil

Abstract

This paper analyses a newly constructed individual level dataset of every English death and probate from 1892-2016. The estimated top wealth shares match closely existing estimates. However, this analysis clearly shows that the 20th century's `Great Equalization' of wealth stalled in mid-century. The probate rate, which captures the proportion of English with any significant wealth at death rose from 10% in the 1890s to 40% by 1950 and has stagnated to 2016. Despite the large declines in the wealth share of the top 1%, from 73% to 20%, the median English person died with almost nothing throughout. All changes in inequality after 1950 involve a reshuffling of wealth within the top 30%. Further, I find that a log-linear distribution fits the empirical data better than a Pareto power law. Finally, I show that the top wealth shares are increasingly and systematically male as one ascends in wealth, 1892- 1992, but this has equalized over the 20th century.

Suggested Citation

  • Cummins, Neil, 2019. "Where is the middle class? Inequality, gender and the shape of the upper tail from 60 million English death and probate records, 1892-2016," Economic History Working Papers 101869, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:wpaper:101869
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/101869/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inequality; economic history; big data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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