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The shape of the risk premium: evidence from a semiparametric GARCH model

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  • Linton, Oliver
  • Perron, Benoit

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the risk premium on the S&P500 index total return and its conditional variance. We propose a new semiparametric model in which the conditional variance process is parametric, while the conditional mean is an arbitrary function of the conditional variance. For monthly S&P 500 excess returns, the relationship between the two moments that we uncover is nonlinear and nonmonotonic. Moreover, we find considerable persistence in the conditional variance as well as a leverage effect as documented by others.

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  • Linton, Oliver & Perron, Benoit, 2000. "The shape of the risk premium: evidence from a semiparametric GARCH model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24769, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:24769
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    Cited by:

    1. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Dahl, Christian M. & Iglesias, Emma M., 2012. "Semiparametric inference in a GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 458-472.
    2. Oliver Linton & Anisha Ghosh, 2007. "Consistent Estimation of the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Presence of Measurement Error," FMG Discussion Papers dp605, Financial Markets Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH; Asset Pricing; Backfitting; Fourier Series; Kernel; Risk Premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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