Unstable pay: new estimates of earnings volatility in the UK

This report uses a newly available dataset – payroll data held by HM Revenue and Customs on over 250,000 working-age people covering April 2014 to March 2019 – to look at monthly and weekly volatility in employee pre-tax earnings. It is one of a very few UK studies to look at high-frequency earnings volatility on a large scale, and the first do so on a sample that is representative of the population of employees in the UK. Earnings volatility will not pose problems for all workers (for example, if erratic earnings are the minority of a household’s income, or if they are the side effect of being able to take shifts that fit around other parts of a worker’s life). But unpredictable earnings can mean financial stress, difficulty planning for the future, and increased reliance on credit or social support. So understanding earnings volatility is crucial for building fairer labour markets, effective social policies, and financial security in an uncertain world.