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Yield drifts when issuance comes before macro news

Author

Listed:
  • Lou, Dong
  • Pinter, Gabor
  • Üslü, Semih
  • Walker, Danny

Abstract

UK government bond yields tend to drift upwards before scheduled news such as monetary policy announcements and labour market data releases. This effect is particularly pronounced during periods of UK bond issuance and is linked to higher term premia. Financial intermediary constraints play a role as dealers avoid accumulating inventory in pre-news windows following issuance. The composition of liquidity providers also shifts: hedge funds buy a large share of the bond issuance outside pre-news windows, but more passive investors – such as foreign central banks and pension funds – provide liquidity in pre-news windows. We outline a simple model to rationalize these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Lou, Dong & Pinter, Gabor & Üslü, Semih & Walker, Danny, 2025. "Yield drifts when issuance comes before macro news," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127045, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:127045
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/127045/
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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