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Rising Temperatures, Melting Incomes: Country-Specific Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Scenarios

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  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Mehdi Raissi

Abstract

We estimate country-specific annual per-capita GDP losses from global warming using the most recent climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under different mitigation, adaptation, and climate variability assumptions. Our results indicate that without significant mitigation and adaptation efforts, global GDP per capita could decline by up to 24 percent under the high-emissions climate scenarios by 2100. These income losses vary significantly across the 174 countries in our sample, depending on the projected paths of temperatures and their variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2024. "Rising Temperatures, Melting Incomes: Country-Specific Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2024-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-42
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-01/42_2024_mohaddes_raissi.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    2. Emmanuel Dhyne & Catherine Fuss & Hashem Pesaran & Patrick Sevestre, 2006. "Lumpy price adjustments : a microeconometric analysis," Working Paper Research 100, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Dhyne, Emmanuel & Fuss, Catherine & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Sevestre, Patrick, 2011. "Lumpy Price Adjustments: A Microeconometric Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 529-540.
    4. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; economic growth; mitigation; adaptation; counterfactual analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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