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Rising Temperatures, Melting Incomes: Country-Specific Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Mehdi Raissi

Abstract

We estimate country-specific annual per-capita GDP losses from global warming using the most recent climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under different mitigation, adaptation, and climate variability assumptions. Our results indicate that without significant mitigation and adaptation efforts, global GDP per capita could decline by up to 24 percent under the high-emissions climate scenarios by 2100. These income losses vary significantly across the 174 countries in our sample, depending on the projected paths of temperatures and their variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2024. "Rising Temperatures, Melting Incomes: Country-Specific Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2024-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-42
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-01/42_2024_mohaddes_raissi.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Samuele Centorrino & Emanuele Massetti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi & Jui-Chung Yang, 2026. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Sustained Warming: A Bias-Corrected Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach," CAMA Working Papers 2026-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Fernando Rios-Avila & Andrey Ramos & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza & Leonardo Siles, 2026. "Estimation and Inference in Quantile Regressions with Multiple Fixed Effects," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper2615, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    3. Liu, Lucy Q. & Pan, Dan & Raissi, Mehdi, 2025. "Macroeconomic effects of climate change: Evidence from Canadian provinces," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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