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Monetary policy trade-offs at the zero lower bound

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Eusepi
  • Christopher G. Gibbs
  • Bruce Preston

Abstract

We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run inflation expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded promises to stabilize expectations. Policy is too stimulatory in the event of transitory shocks, but provides insurance against persistent shocks. Optimal policy is well-approximated by a constant calendar-based forward guidance, independent of the shock’s realized persistence. This insurance principle qualitatively and quantitatively distinguishes our paper from other recent research on bounded rationality and the forward guidance puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Eusepi & Christopher G. Gibbs & Bruce Preston, 2022. "Monetary policy trade-offs at the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2022-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-26
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2022-03/26_2022_eusepi_gibbs_preston.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 393-423, December.
    2. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 393-423, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal Monetary Policy; Learning Dynamics; Expectations Stabilization; Forward Guidance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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