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US shocks and the uncovered interest rate parity

Author

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  • Mengheng Li
  • Bowen Fu

Abstract

The literature on uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) shows two empirical puzzles. One is the failure of UIP, and the other is the unstable coefficients in the UIP regression. We propose a time-varying coefficients model with stochastic volatility and US structural shocks (TVC-SVX) to study how US structural shocks affect time-variation in the bilateral UIP relation for twelve countries. An unconditional test and a conditional test for UIP are developed. The former tests if UIP coefficients mean-revert to their theoretical values, whereas the latter tests coefficients at each point in time. Our findings suggest that the failure of UIP results from omitted US factors, in particular US monetary policy, productivity and preference shocks, which are also found to Granger cause local movements of UIP coefficients.

Suggested Citation

  • Mengheng Li & Bowen Fu, 2020. "US shocks and the uncovered interest rate parity," CAMA Working Papers 2020-87, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-87
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-10/87_2020_li_fu1_0.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying parameter; Stochastic volatility; Model uncertainty; Exchange rate; Uncovered interest rate parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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