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Inflation dynamics: Expectations, structural breaks and global factors

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  • Pierre L. Siklos

Abstract

There is no consensus over the importance of “global forces†on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which ‘global forces’ are relevant. Three conclusions stand out. Global inflation impacts inflation in both AE and EME, but the impact is more heterogeneous than existing narratives have argued. One’s interpretation of global influences on domestic inflation differs, according to whether poorly performing economies in inflation terms are considered as opposed to the standard practice of examining mean inflation performance. A focus on observed inflation alone ignores that inflation expectations, including a global version of this variable, also plays a critical in inflation dynamics. Finally, there are significant spillovers in inflation between AE and EME, but these too are sensitive according to relative inflation performance. Some policy implications are also drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Inflation dynamics: Expectations, structural breaks and global factors," CAMA Working Papers 2020-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-53
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-05/53_2020_siklos1.pdf
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    Keywords

    Inflation; Globalization; monetary policy; Vector autoregressions; local projections; quantile regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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