IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The financial fragility of Estonian households: Evidence from stress tests on the HFCS microdata

Listed author(s):
  • Tairi Rõõm

    ()

  • Jaanika Meriküll

    ()

Registered author(s):

    This paper analyses the financial fragility of the Estonian household sector using microdata from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). We use a stress-testing framework where the probability of default is evaluated on the basis of the financial margin (i.e. the ability to service debt from current income) and the availability of financial buffers. The HFCS data from household interviews are complemented with information from administrative registers. This lets us evaluate and compare measures of financial vulnerability that draw on data from different sources. We derive a set of indicators to identify households that are financially distressed and analyse the sensitivity of financial sector loan losses to adverse shocks. The stress-test elasticities are assessed separately for three standardised negative macroeconomic shocks: a rise in interest rates, an increase in the unemployment rate, and a fall in real estate prices. In addition, we evaluate the impact of a simultaneous shock mimicking the dynamics of these three variables during the Great Recession. It is found that: (1) despite there being a lot of households with financial difficulties, the risks for banks from the household sector are limited; (2) financial fragility is strongly negatively related to income; (3) the loan default rate of households is most sensitive to shocks to the unemployment rate and the interest rate, while the loan losses of banks are affected most by real estate price shocks; and (4) compared with the survey data, the information collected from administrative sources points to higher household default rates and larger bank losses.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.23656/25045520/42017/0142
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number wp2017-4.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 25 May 2017
    Date of revision: 25 May 2017
    Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2017-4
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA

    Phone: +3726680719
    Fax: +3726680900
    Web page: http://www.bankofestonia.info
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information: Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA
    Email:


    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2017-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peeter Luikmel)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.