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Testing the efficiency of emerging markets: the case of the Baltic States


  • Virmantas Kvedaras


  • Olivier Basdevant



There is little evidence on the efficiency of the early stage of the capital market in transition countries, although market structure developments and the learning process could define the framework for efficient markets. The article tries to find out whether financial markets are efficient in the three Baltic States and if not, whether there are any signs of evolving to the efficient capital market. To answer these questions the analysis combines the methodology for testing the efficiency of capital market using the variance ratio robust to heteroscedasticity with the state-space representation, which enables us to use an efficient filtering technique - the Kalman filter - to get time varying autocorrelations. The official Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian stock exchange market indices TALSE, DJRSE, and LITIN comprising the most liquid parts of the stock market in a respective country are analysed. The main conclusion to be drawn from the analysis is that financial markets in the Baltic States are, with some turbulence, approaching weak form of efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Virmantas Kvedaras & Olivier Basdevant, 2002. "Testing the efficiency of emerging markets: the case of the Baltic States," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-9, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2002.
  • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2002-09

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    2. Nickell, Stephen & Layard, Richard, 1999. "Labor market institutions and economic performance," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 3029-3084 Elsevier.
    3. Stephen R. G. Jones, 1988. "The Relationship Between Unemployment Spells and Reservation Wages as a Test of Search Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 741-765.
    4. Lancaster, Tony, 1985. "Simultaneous equations models in applied search theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 113-126, April.
    5. Andreas Freytag, 2002. "Estonian labour market and EMU membership - challenges and policy options," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-11, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Dec 2002.
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    Cited by:

    1. Camelia Oprean, 2012. "Testing the financial market informational efficiency in emerging states," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 4(2), pages 181-190, Decembre.
    2. Graham Smith, 2012. "The changing and relative efficiency of European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 689-708, September.

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