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Payment Risk and Bank Lending

Author

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  • Li, Ye

    (Ohio State University)

  • Li, Yi

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Abstract

Deposits finance bank lending and serve as means of payment for bank customers. Under uncertain payment flows, deposits are debts with random maturities. Payment outflows drain reserves, and the risk is most prominent when funding markets are under stress and banks are unable to smooth out payment shocks. We provide the first evidence on the negative impact of payment risk on bank lending, bridging the literatures on payment systems and credit supply. An interquartile increase in payment risk is associated with a decline in loan growth rate that is 10% of standard deviation. Our findings are stronger in times of funding stress and robust across banks of different sizes and loans of long and short maturities. Banks with higher payment risk raise deposit rates to expand customer base and internalize payment flows. Finally, we show that payment risk dampens the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Ye & Li, Yi, 2021. "Payment Risk and Bank Lending," Working Paper Series 2021-17, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2021-17
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3959110
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodney J Garratt & Jiaheng Yu & Haoxiang Zhu, 2022. "The Case for Convenience: How CBDC Design Choices Impact Monetary Policy Pass-Through," BIS Working Papers 1046, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Gersbach, Hans & Zelzner, Sebastian, 2022. "Why Bank Money Creation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Lawson, Aidan, 2021. "United Kingdom Asset Resolution Limited (UKAR)," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 3(2), pages 641-664, April.
    4. Althanns, Markus & Gersbach, Hans, 2023. "The Monetary Policy Haircut Rule," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277597, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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