Are the Central and Eastern European Transition Countries still vulnerable to a Financial Crisis? Results from a Multivariate Logit Analysis
The aim of the paper is to analyse the determinants of financial crises in a sample of nine transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe with a modified logit model. The modification takes explicitly into account the rare event characteristic of a currency crisis. Our results suggest that it is possible to explain the occurrence of crises with only a small number of macroeconomic variables. The variables which contribute positively to the probability of a crisis are: i) the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP; ii) the ratio of the budget deficit to GDP; iii) the change in currency reserves; iv) the amount of real appreciation of the currency relative to a trend, and v) the change in exports. Short-term debt by banks, which played a key role in the history of the Asian crises, was not an important factor in the build up of the crisis potential in Central and Eastern Europe.
|Date of creation:||04 Jun 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2 Dean Trench Street, Westminster, SW1P 3HE|
Phone: +44 20 3137 6301
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.