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On the predictability of the effects of data centers electricity demand shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Claude Crampes
  • Antonio Estache

Abstract

The paper shows that the entry of data centers in the electricity market leads to priceand consumption effects observed in the real world that were quite predictable froma simple conceptual modelling exercise. The size of the associated welfare losses issensitive to specific electricity market characteristics, explaining why they are oftennot comparable across regions or countries. In general, the historical users are likelyto be worse off in the short run. They will recover their losses in the longer run, butonly if the entrant finances its own capacity needs and if the data centers do not haveexcessive bargaining power. The differences in possible outcomes according to contextsuggests that one-size-fits-all policies to manage the shock across countries or regionswill fail to mitigate undesirable effects in some contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Crampes & Antonio Estache, 2026. "On the predictability of the effects of data centers electricity demand shocks," Working Papers ECARES 2026-08, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/404324
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    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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