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El peligro de utilizar betas calculadas

Author

Listed:
  • Fernandez, Pablo

    () (IESE Business School)

  • Carabias, Jose M.

    (IESE Business School)

Abstract

En este artículo se muestra que es un error enorme utilizar las betas calculadas con datos históricos para calcular la rentabilidad exigida a las acciones o para medir la gestión de una cartera de valores. Por 7 razones: porque cambian mucho de un día para otro; porque dependen de qué índice bursátil se tome como referencia. porque dependen mucho de qué periodo histórico (5 años, 3 años,…) y de qué rentabilidades (mensuales, anuales,…) se utilicen para su cálculo; porque con mucha frecuencia no sabemos si la beta de una empresa es superior o inferior a la beta de otra empresa; porque tienen muy poca relación con la rentabilidad posterior de las acciones; y porque la correlación (y la R2) de las regresiones que se utilizan para su cálculo son muy pequeñas. Debido a estas 7 razones podemos afirmar que o bien la beta calculada con datos históricos no es una buena aproximación al riesgo de la empresa, o bien el CAPM no funciona (hay más factores que afectan a su rentabilidad exigida, además de la covarianza de la rentabilidad de una empresa con la rentabilidad del mercado, la tasa sin riesgo y la prima de riesgo del mercado), o bien, ambas cosas a la vez.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez, Pablo & Carabias, Jose M., 2007. "El peligro de utilizar betas calculadas," IESE Research Papers D/685, IESE Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0685
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    beta; rentabilidad exigida a las acciones; rentabilidad para los accionistas;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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