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Assessing the Value of SCFs on Farm-level Corn Production through Simulation Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Celia M. Reyes

    (PIDS)

  • Kathrina G. Gonzales
  • Canesio D. Predo
  • Rosalina G. de Guzman

Abstract

Rainfall variability greatly influences corn production. Thus, an accurate forecast is potentially of value to the farmers because it could help them decide whether to grow their corn now or to delay it for the next cropping opportunity. A decision tree analysis was applied in estimating the value of seasonal climate forecast (SCF) information for corn farmers in Isabela. The study aims to estimate the value of SCF to agricultural decision makers under climate uncertainty. Historical climatic data of Isabela from 1951 to 2006 from PAGASA and crop management practices of farmers were used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to test the potential impact of climate change on corn. The approach is developed for a more accurate SCF and to be able to simulate corn yields for wet and dry seasons under different climatic conditions -- El Nio (poor year), La Nia (good year) and Neutral (neutral year) conditions. In order for the forecast to have value, the with forecast scenario should lead to better decision making for farmers to eventually get increase production over the without forecast scenario. While SCF may potentially affect a number of decisions including crop management practices, fertilizer inputs, and variety selection, the focus of the study was on the effect of climate on corn production. Improving SCF will enhance rainfed corn farmers decisionmaking capacity to minimize losses brought about by variable climate conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Celia M. Reyes & Kathrina G. Gonzales & Canesio D. Predo & Rosalina G. de Guzman, 2009. "Assessing the Value of SCFs on Farm-level Corn Production through Simulation Modeling," Development Economics Working Papers 22688, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:develo:22688
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    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22688
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aldaba, Rafaelita M., 2006. "FDI Investment Incentive System and FDI Inflows: The Philippine Experience," Discussion Papers DP 2006-20, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    2. Herrin, Alejandro N. & Pernia, Ernesto M., 1986. "Factors Affecting the Choice of Location: A Survey of Foreign and Local Firms in the Philippines," Working Papers WP 1986-03, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    3. Jenny D. Balboa & Erlinda M. Medalla, 2006. "State of Trade and Investments in the Philippines," Trade Working Papers 22612, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Patalinghug, Epictetus, 2003. "The Philippine National Innovation System: Structure and Characteristics," Discussion Papers DP 2003-04, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    5. Austria, Myrna S., 1998. "The Emerging Philippine Investment Environment," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1998 Vol. XXV No. 1-b, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. Lamberte, Mario B., 1988. "Science and Technology and Economic Development," Working Papers WP 1988-28, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    7. Herrin, Alejandro N. & Pernia, Ernesto M., 1986. "Factors Affecting the Choice of Location: A Survey of Foreign and Local Firms in the Philippines," Working Papers WP 1986-03, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision tree analysis; seasonal climate forecast (SCF); climate uncertainty; Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT);

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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