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The impact of agricultural shocks on households growth performance in rural Madagascar

  • Anne-Claire Thomas


    (DIAL, University Paris Dauphine,EURIsCO)

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    (english) This paper tests if agricultural and climatic shocks have persistent impacts on consumption growth in 7 rural areas from Madagascar. The empirical framework is inspired by a standard Solow growth model. Shocks are introduced directly in the reduced form model as controls for factor productivity and investment level. This model is estimated on a panel of 6175 households observed each year between 1999 and 2004. Fixed effects are introduces to control for unobserved heterogeneity. We use idiosyncratic shocks on agricultural fields due to plant illness or predators and a covariate climatic shock measured by village rainfall deviations from long term means. Growth is measured by consumption growth. We use household total consumption, household per capita consumption, household total food consumption and household per capita food consumption. Estimation results indicate that covariate (rainfall) and idiosyncratic shocks on rice fields have persistent impacts on growth whereas idiosyncratic shocks on other crops than rice have no persistent impact. These average impacts are however not the same along income distribution. Estimation by income quintile shows that idiosyncratic shocks decrease future growth of poor household whereas rich household growth performance is protected against idiosyncratic shocks. Surprisingly, covariate shocks have persistent impact on rich household consumption growth but not on poor household consumption growth. _________________________________ (français) Cet article teste si les chocs agricoles et climatiques négatifs ont un effet persistant sur la croissance de la consommation des ménages dans 7 observatoires du Réseau des Observatoires Ruraux (ROR) à Madagascar. Autrement dit, on examine si un choc négatif sur la production agricole réduit les performances de croissance futures des ménages. Un modèle de croissance néo-classique de type Solow est mobilisé afin de spécifier la relation entre croissance de la consommation, caractéristiques du ménage et chocs. Ce modèle est estimé sous forme réduite sur un panel de 6175 ménages malgaches interrogés chaque année de 1999 à 2004. L’introduction d’effets fixes permet de contrôler pour l’hétérogénéité non observée. Les chocs sont introduits directement dans l’équation comme des variables qui déterminent la productivité des facteurs et le niveau d’investissement. Les chocs étudiés comprennent des chocs idiosyncratiques sur les cultures tels que les maladies des plantes et les destructions par des prédateurs et un choc climatique covarié mesuré par les déviations des précipitations par rapport à leurs moyennes de long terme village par village. Quatre agrégats sont utilisés pour mesurer la croissance : la croissance de la consommation totale du ménage, la croissance de la consommation par tête, la croissance de la consommation alimentaire totale du ménage et la croissance de la consommation alimentaire par tête. Les résultats d’estimation indiquent que les chocs covariés (précipitations) et les chocs idiosyncratiques sur les parcelles de riz réduisent durablement la croissance des ménages. Par contre, les chocs idiosyncratiques sur les autres cultures (maïs, tubercules, autres) n’ont pas d’impact persistant sur la croissance de la consommation. Ces effets moyens ne sont cependant pas homogènes sur toute la distribution des revenus des ménages. Les estimations réalisées par quintile de revenus montrant que les chocs idiosyncratiques ont un impact négatif persistant sur la croissance de la consommation des ménages pauvres tandis que les riches semblent protégés. De manière étonnante, les chocs covariés (précipitations) ont un impact persistent sur la croissance des ménages les plus riches mais pas sur celle des plus pauvres.

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    Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2009/05.

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    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2009
    Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200905
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