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Croissance, distribution et pauvreté : un modèle de micro simulation en équilibre général appliqué à Madagascar

Listed author(s):
  • Denis Cogneau


    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

  • Anne-Sophie Robilliard


    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

This paper presents a microsimulation model in a General Equilibrium framework applied to Madagascar. The model is primarily focused on labor markets and labor allocation at the household level, and consumption behavior is also modeled. At the aggregate level, it allows for the endogenous determination of relative prices between sectors. The model represents the behavior of a sample of 4,500 representative households in an economy with 3 sectors (agricultural, informal, and formal) and 4 goods (food crop, cash crop, informal good, and formal good). It takes explicitly into account heterogeneity in human capital endowments, as well as preferences in terms of consumption at the microeconomic level. Modeling choices were driven by a desire to construct a model that makes the best possible use of microeconomic information derived from household data. The results confirm the usefulness of this class of models, which permit the computation of poverty and inequality measures without resorting to the representative agent assumption. _________________________________ Ce papier présente un modèle de microsimulation en équilibre général appliqué à Madagascar. Ce modèle présente deux caractéristiques innovantes, à savoir, d'une part, la modélisation des comportements d'allocation du temps de travail au niveau micro-économique, d'autre part, la prise en compte de certains effets d'équilibre général à travers la détermination endogène des prix et des facteurs. Le modèle représente le comportement d'un échantillon de 4.500 ménages représentatifs de la population malgache, dans une économie à 3 secteurs (agricole, informel et formel) et 4 biens (alimentaire, agricole d’exportation, informel et formel). Ce modèle traite explicitement de l'hétérogénéité des qualifications, des préférences et des opportunités d'allocation du travail, ainsi que des préférences de consommation au niveau micro-économique. Les choix de modélisation ont été guidés par le souci d'utiliser le mieux possible l'information micro-économique dérivée des données de ménages. Les résultats des simulations confirment la contribution de l'approche à l'analyse de l'impact de différents chocs de croissance sur les inégalités et la pauvreté.

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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2001/19.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2001
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200119
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