IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dem/wpaper/wp-2015-011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Producing reliable mortality estimates in the context of distorted population statistics: the case of Moldova

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Penina
  • Dmitri A. Jdanov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Pavel Grigoriev

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Background and Aim Despite having a functioning population register, the official demographic indicators in Moldova are seriously biased. The problem arises primarily because the registration of deaths and births covers only the events that occur within the country (the de facto population), whereas the population at risk includes Moldovan citizens who live abroad (the de jure population). Because the country has high levels of emigration, there are substantial differences between the de facto and the de jure population numbers. Thus, the nominator-denominator bias must be taken into account in the population statistics. To obtain plausible demographic rates, appropriate corrections of population size have to be made. Our aim is to estimate the size of the de facto Moldovan population, and to produce reliable mortality estimates for the longest period possible. Data and Methods We rely on official data obtained from various sources. These include mortality data, census counts, and annual population estimates collected from archives or obtained directly from the Moldovan National Bureau of Statistics. Using alternative administrative data sources, we first correct the size of the Moldovan population. We then generate adjusted population estimates. Finally, on the basis of the adjusted population estimates, we produce life tables. All of the calculations are performed using the methodology and programming tools developed within the Human Mortality Database (HMD) Project. Results Our corrected population estimates are 18 percent lower than the official figures. The adjusted estimates of life expectancy at birth in 2014 are 64.94 years for males and 73.74 years for females. These figures are, respectively, 2.58 years and 1.65 years lower than the official estimates. Our estimates of the size of the population are consistent with unpublished 2014 population census data. Complete life tables for the period 1970–2014, as well as some other HMD statistics, are provided as supplementary material. Conclusions We show that even when there is a serious distortion of population statistics, it is possible to obtain plausible mortality estimates. This issue is highly relevant not just for Moldova, but for other European countries that have also been experiencing problems with the incorrect registration of migration. To improve the quality of their population estimates, countries will increasingly have to consult alternative administrative data sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Penina & Dmitri A. Jdanov & Pavel Grigoriev, 2015. "Producing reliable mortality estimates in the context of distorted population statistics: the case of Moldova," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-011
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dmitri A. Jdanov & Domantas Jasilionis & Eugeny L. Soroko & Roland Rau & James W. Vaupel, 2008. "Beyond the Kannisto-Thatcher Database on Old Age Mortality: an assessment of data quality at advanced ages," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1003_0499 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Irina PAHOMII & Vitalie ȘTÎRBA, 2018. "Mortality From External Causes Of Death In The Republic Of Moldova," ECONOMY AND SOCIOLOGY: Theoretical and Scientifical Journal, Socionet;Complexul Editorial "INCE", issue 2, pages 95-103.
    2. Olga Penina, 2017. "Alcohol-Related Causes of Death and Drinking Patterns in Moldova as Compared to Russia and Ukraine," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 679-700, December.
    3. Elena HRUSCIOV, 2017. "Population Ageing Determinants In The Republic Of Moldova And Selected European Countries," ECONOMY AND SOCIOLOGY: Theoretical and Scientifical Journal, Socionet;Complexul Editorial "INCE", issue 1-2, pages 148-158.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jackie Li & Jia Liu, 2020. "A modified extreme value perspective on best-performance life expectancy," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 345-375, December.
    2. Dana Glei & Andres Barajas Paz & Jose Manuel Aburto & Magali Barbieri, 2021. "Mexican mortality 1990‒2016: Comparison of unadjusted and adjusted estimates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(30), pages 719-758.
    3. Baten, Joerg & Llorca-Jaña, Manuel, 2021. "Inequality, low-intensity immigration and human capital formation in the regions of Chile, 1820-1939," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    4. Marilia R. Nepomuceno & Cássio M. Turra, 2019. "The population of centenarians in Brazil: historical estimates from 1900 to 2000," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Jia Liu & Jackie Li, 2019. "Beyond the highest life expectancy: construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 159-181, June.
    6. Roland Rau & Eugeny Soroko & Domantas Jasilionis & James W. Vaupel, 2008. "Continued Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(4), pages 747-768, December.
    7. Magali Barbieri, 2018. "Investigating the Difference in Mortality Estimates between the Social Security Administration Trustees' Report and the Human Mortality Database," Working Papers wp394, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    8. Marília R. Nepomuceno & Cássio M. Turra, 2020. "The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(4), pages 813-833, December.
    9. Dennis M. Feehan, 2018. "Separating the Signal From the Noise: Evidence for Deceleration in Old-Age Death Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2025-2044, December.
    10. Tom Wilson & Jeromey Temple, 2020. "The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 377-389, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Moldova; mortality;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Wilhelm (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.