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Italy’s path to very low fertility: the adequacy of economic and second demographic transition theories

Author

Listed:
  • David K. Kertzer
  • Michael White

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Laura Bernardi

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Giuseppe Gabrielli

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • David K. Kertzer & Michael White & Laura Bernardi & Giuseppe Gabrielli, 2006. "Italy’s path to very low fertility: the adequacy of economic and second demographic transition theories," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-049, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-049
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-049
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    File URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/projects_publications/publications_1904/journal_articles/italys_path_to_very_low_fertility_the_adequacy_of_economic_and_second_demographic_transition_2855.htm
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Meggiolaro, 2010. "The importance of intentions in the mechanism of reproductive behaviour formation," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(1), pages 107-125, March.
    2. Eleonora Mussino & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2008. "Fertility of migrants: a comparative study between Italy and Russia," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Samuel H. Preston & Caroline Sten Hartnett, 2010. "The Future of American Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 11-36, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Silvia Meggiolaro, 2011. "Do Neighbourhoods Have an Influence on Reproductive Intentions? Empirical Evidence from Milan," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 791-807.
    5. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(8), pages 171-224.
    6. Samuel H. Preston & Caroline Sten Hartnett, 2008. "The Future of American Fertility," NBER Working Papers 14498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italy; event history analysis; fertility decline; living space;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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