IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dem/wpaper/wp-2006-006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing

Author

Listed:
  • Jan M. Hoem

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Michaela R. Kreyenfeld

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures. (Keywords: anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, fertility by educational attainment)

Suggested Citation

  • Jan M. Hoem & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-006
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aart C. Liefbroer & Martine Corijn, 1999. "Who, What, Where, and When? Specifying the Impact of Educational Attainment and Labour Force Participation on Family Formation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 45-75, March.
    2. Steven Martin, 2000. "Diverging fertility among U.S. women who delay childbearing past age 30," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(4), pages 523-533, November.
    3. Øystein Kravdal, 2004. "An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(6), pages 135-154.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Øystein Kravdal, 2007. "Effects of current education on second- and third-birth rates among Norwegian women and men born in 1964: Substantive interpretations and methodological issues," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(9), pages 211-246.
    2. Kind, Michael & Kleibrink, Jan, 2013. "Sooner or Later – Economic Insecurity and the Timing of First Birth," Ruhr Economic Papers 422, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Doris Hanappi & Valérie-Anne Ryser & Laura Bernardi & Jean-Marie Le Goff, 2017. "Changes in Employment Uncertainty and the Fertility Intention–Realization Link: An Analysis Based on the Swiss Household Panel," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 381-407, July.
    4. repec:zbw:rwirep:0422 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tropf, Felix C & Mandemakers, Jornt J, 2017. "Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors," OSF Preprints dqrrx, Center for Open Science.
    6. Kryštof Zeman, 2018. "Cohort fertility and educational expansion in the Czech Republic during the 20th century," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(56), pages 1699-1732.
    7. Jan Bavel, 2010. "Choice of study discipline and the postponement of motherhood in Europe: The impact of expected earnings, gender composition, and family attitudes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(2), pages 439-458, May.
    8. Michael Kind & Jan Kleibrink, 2013. "Sooner or Later – Economic Insecurity and the Timing of First Birth," Ruhr Economic Papers 0422, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Kryštof Zeman, 2007. "Transition of nuptiality and fertility onset in the Czech Republic since the 1990s: the role of women’s education and its expansion," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-017, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Felix C. Tropf & Jornt J. Mandemakers, 2017. "Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 71-91, February.
    11. Cordula Zabel, 2009. "Do imputed education histories provide satisfactory results in fertility analysis in the Western German context?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(6), pages 135-176.
    12. Magdalena M. Muszynska, 2004. "Employment after childbearing: a comparative study of Italy and Norway," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-030, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Vladislava Stankuniene & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2008. "Lithuania: Fertility decline and its determinants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(20), pages 705-742.
    14. Hande Inanc, 2015. "Unemployment and the timing of parenthood," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(7), pages 219-250.
    15. Gunnar Andersson, 2000. "The Impact of Labour-Force Participation on Childbearing Behaviour: Pro-Cyclical Fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 293-333, December.
    16. Anna Kurowska & Michal Myck & Katharina Wrohlich, 2012. "Family and Labor Market Choices: Requirements to Guide Effective Evidence-Based Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1234, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    18. Darcy W. Hango & Céline Le Bourdais, 2007. "Early Union Formation in Canada: Links with Education," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 339-368, October.
    19. Adam Isen & Betsey Stevenson, 2010. "Women's Education and Family Behavior: Trends in Marriage, Divorce and Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 107-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Elizabeth Fussell, 2002. "The Transition to Adulthood in Aging Societies," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 580(1), pages 16-39, March.
    21. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2004. "Fertility Decisions in the FRG and GDR: An Analysis with Data from the German Fertility and Family Survey," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(11), pages 275-318.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anticipatory analysis; conditioning on the future; fertility by educational attainment);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Wilhelm (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.