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Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing

Author

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  • Jan M. Hoem

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Michaela Kreyenfeld

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures. (Keywords: anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, fertility by educational attainment)

Suggested Citation

  • Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-006
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    File URL: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-006.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. FFF1Øystein NNN1Kravdal, 2004. "An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(6), pages 135-154, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonas Wood & Karel Neels & Tine Kil, 2014. "The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(46), pages 1365-1416, December.
    2. Daniel T. Lichter & Katherine Michelmore & Richard N. Turner & Sharon Sassler, 2016. "Pathways to a Stable Union? Pregnancy and Childbearing Among Cohabiting and Married Couples," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), pages 377-399.
    3. Martin Klesment & Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Luule Sakkeus, 2014. "Varying association between education and second births in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(27), pages 813-860, October.
    4. David Clifford, 2009. "Spousal separation, selectivity and contextual effects: exploring the relationship between international labour migration and fertility in post-Soviet Tajikistan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(32), pages 945-975, December.
    5. repec:spr:eurpop:v:33:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10680-017-9421-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Doreen Huschek & Helga A.G. De Valk & Aart C. Liefbroer, 2010. "Timing of first union among second-generation Turks in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(16), pages 473-504, March.
    7. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0388-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Katharina Wolf, 2016. "Marriage Migration Versus Family Reunification: How Does the Marriage and Migration History Affect the Timing of First and Second Childbirth Among Turkish Immigrants in Germany?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, pages 731-759.
    9. Arianna Caporali & Sebastian Klüsener & Gerda Neyer & Sandra Krapf & Olga Grigorieva & Dora Kostova, 2016. "The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Programme: Concept, content, and research examples," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(9), pages 229-252, August.
    10. John Ermisch & Fiona Steele, 2016. "Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(54), pages 1561-1584, December.
    11. Daniele Vignoli & Irene Ferro, 2009. "Rising marital disruption in Italy and its correlates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(4), pages 11-36, January.
    12. Cordula Zabel, 2009. "Do imputed education histories provide satisfactory results in fertility analysis in the Western German context?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(6), pages 135-176, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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