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Inflation-unemployment trade-off and regional labor market data

Author

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  • Hassler, Uwe
  • Neugart, Michael

Abstract

We estimate a linear and a piecewise linear Phillips curve model with regional labor market data for West German and Neue Länder. Employing regional observations allows us to country difference the data. This eliminates, under the assumption of homogeneous Länder, supply shocks and changes in the formation of expectations as possible identification failures. With seemingly unrelated regressions we find a flat Phillips curve in the Neue Länder. For the West German Länder a piecewise linear model with a higher inflation-unemployment tradeoff for the regime of low unemployment rates fits the data very well. The results hold true if we control for endogeneity of the unemployment rate. With a kinked but upward sloping aggregate supply curve there seems to be room for stabilization policies, at least in the range of aggregate demand shifts that our data covers.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hassler, Uwe & Neugart, Michael, 2003. "Inflation-unemployment trade-off and regional labor market data," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 57331, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:57331
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/57331/
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    File URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs001810200133
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    File URL: http://tuprints.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/id/eprint/4811
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    2. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Greece and the Troika – Lessons from International Best Practice Cases of Successful Price (and Wage) Adjustment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 14(2), pages 177-195, December.
    3. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2010. "Modelling inflation in China--A regional perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-255, June.
    4. Nkoba, Malik Abdulrahman & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Revisiting the Phillips curve trade-off: evidence from Tanzania using nonlinear ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 91631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Shu-hen Chiang, 2016. "Rising residential rents in Chinese mega cities: The role of monetary policy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3493-3509, December.
    6. Linzert, Tobias, 2005. "The Unemployment Inflation Trade-Off in the Euro Area," IZA Discussion Papers 1699, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Vijay VICTOR & Maria FEKETE FARKAS & Florence JEESON, 2018. "Inflation unemployment dynamics in Hungary – A structured cointegration and vector error correction model approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 195-204, Summer.
    8. Kevin S. Nell, 2006. "Structural Change And Nonlinearities In A Phillips Curve Model For South Africa," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 600-617, October.
    9. Mohammed Saiful Islam & Riduanul Mustafa, 2017. "Quest for a Valid Phillips Curve in the Long Run: An Empirical Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 191-198, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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