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To change or not to change? The CDS market response of firms on credit watch

Author

Listed:
  • Kiesel, F.
  • Kolaric, S.
  • Norden, L.
  • Schiereck, D.

Abstract

CDS spreads contain information about expected credit risk, but how accurate is this information when uncertainty about credit risk arises? We document that CDS spreads of firms on negative credit watch (review for downgrade) change systematically into the direction implied by the ex-ante uncertain review outcomes: they widen before reviews concluded with downgrades and tighten before reviews concluded with confirmations. Moreover, CDS spreads widen before deteriorations of corporate credit risk such as leverage, interest rate coverage and Altman Z-score that occur over the review period. Importantly, we do not find similar patterns for firms’ stock returns during the review period. The evidence is novel and suggests that the CDS market not only reflects the increase in uncertainty but also accurate forward-looking information about the outcomes of the uncertainty-inducing events.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kiesel, F. & Kolaric, S. & Norden, L. & Schiereck, D., 2021. "To change or not to change? The CDS market response of firms on credit watch," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 125502, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:125502
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/125502/
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    Cited by:

    1. Nagy, Olivér & Neszveda, Gábor, 2025. "Assessing geopolitical risk: Sovereign CDS insights from the Russo-Ukrainian War," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1995-2006.
    2. Singh, Amanjot & Singh, Harminder, 2022. "Insiders' stock pledging disclosures and credit ratings: Evidence from India," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Gündüz, Yalin & Ongena, Steven & Tümer-Alkan, Günseli & Yu, Yuejuan, 2025. "CDS and credit: The effect of the bangs on credit insurance, lending and hedging," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Alena Audzeyeva & Xu Wang, 2023. "Fundamentals, real-time uncertainty and CDS index spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    5. Goedde-Menke, Michael & Norden, Lars & Rose, Christian, 2025. "The benefits of downside risk reduction through coinsurance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    6. Florian Kiesel, 2021. "It's the tone, stupid! Soft information in credit rating reports and financial markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 553-585, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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