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The Fertility, Marriage, and Gender Equality Quandary

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  • Anson Zhou

Abstract

This paper studies the nexus among fertility, family structure, and gender income equality. I document a novel three-way trade-off in cross-country data: simultaneously achieving high fertility, low single parenthood, and gender income equality is unlikely at all levels of economic development. To explain this fact, I develop a unified theory where the trade-off emerges as an equilibrium outcome. Among various policy instruments, I show that reducing women's child-rearing costs stands out as the unique one that mitigates the trade-off, but the policy costs grow as wages increase. When I calibrate the model to fit Mexico's experience from 1990 to 2015, I find that gender-neutral technological progress explains half of rising single parenthood and declining fertility, while gender-biased productivity growth and the gender education gap reversal account for the narrowing gender income and welfare gaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Anson Zhou, 2025. "The Fertility, Marriage, and Gender Equality Quandary," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 25134, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
  • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:25134
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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