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The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China

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  • Taylor, Alan M.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the consequences of the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi for the global monetary system and its possible ascension to reserve currency status. In an unstable and financially integrated world, governments’ precautionary demand for reserve assets is likely to increase. But the world then risks a third crisis of the global reserve system, another re-run of the Triffin paradox, with an ever-growing emerging-world insurance demand loaded onto a small group of ever more strained net debt suppliers. Two ways to avoid this outcome would entail either expanding the supply of credible reserve liquidity to include some large emerging-market providers, or finding ways to manage emerging-market risks so as to moderate the perceived need for insurance, and China would have to loom large in both solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Alan M., 2013. "The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China," CEPR Discussion Papers 9305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9305
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    Cited by:

    1. Batten, Jonathan A. & Szilagyi, Peter G., 2016. "The internationalisation of the RMB: New starts, jumps and tipping points," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    2. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Reserve accumulation and financial crises: From individual protection to systemic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 126-144.
    3. Florian Brugger, 2015. "Asia’s Reserve Accumulation: Part of a New Paradigm," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2015-03, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    4. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Current account balance and dollar standard: Exploring the linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 65-94.
    5. Florian Brugger, 2016. "Asias Reserve Accumulation: Part of a New Paradigm," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(8), pages 457-476, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; international reserves; precautionary saving; renminbi; reserve currency; Triffin paradox;

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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