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Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: Structural Estimates for the UK, the US and the euro area

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  • Andrés, Javier
  • López-Salido, J David
  • Nelson, Edward

Abstract

In this Paper, we look at the role of money in a general framework that encompasses three competing environments: the New Keynesian model with separable utility and static money demand; the non-separable utility variant with habit formation; and the New Keynesian model modified to allow for adjustment costs for holding real balances. The last two models imply a forward-looking character of real money balances that convey on money an important role as a monetary policy indicator. We distinguish between these alternative views by conducting a structural econometric analysis for the US, the euro area, and the UK. The FIML estimates confirm the forward-looking character of the money demand. Using these estimates we find that, in response to preferences and technology shocks, money incorporates useful information regarding future variations in the natural interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: Structural Estimates for the UK, the US and the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4337
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Lombardi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "(Un)naturally Low? Sequential Monte Carlo Tracking of the US Natural Interest Rate," DNB Working Papers 142, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
    3. Emil Stavrev & Helge Berger, 2012. "The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4055-4072, November.
    4. Axel A. Weber & Wolfgang Lemke & Andreas Worms, 2008. "How useful is the concept of the natural real rate of interest for monetary policy?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 49-63, January.
    5. Jeffery D. Amato, 2005. "The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 171, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Helge Berger & Henning Weber, 2012. "Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest," IMF Working Papers 12/6, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Alexius, Annika & Welz, Peter, 2006. "Can a time-varying equilibrium real interest rate explain the excess sensitivity puzzle?," Working Paper Series 2006:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    8. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward-looking money demand; natural rate of interest;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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