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Accession to the WTO and EU Enlargement: What Potential for Trade Increase?


  • Koukhartchouk, Oxana
  • Maurel, Mathilde


This Paper asks the question of the impact of institutions on trade and tries to estimate the potential for trade increase between CIS, Central Eastern European countries and the EU. The latter is computed using the gravity equation and the procedure introduced by Hausman and Taylor (1981). It is shown that CIS trade is still characterized by a very large trade destruction effect, which implies that trade with EU countries could increase in the long-run in proportion to this trade destruction effect. Furthermore, institutions matter, and the convergence of institutional variables towards the EU standards - under the current process of EU enlargement and application of Russia to join the WTO - can be expected to deepen the level of the European trade integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Koukhartchouk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2003. "Accession to the WTO and EU Enlargement: What Potential for Trade Increase?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3944

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nazia Gul & Hafiz M. Yasin, 2011. "The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 23-62, Jan-Jun.
    2. Henri L.F. de Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld, 2003. "Why do OECD-Countries trade more?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-092/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Henri L. F. de Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2004. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 103-123, February.
    4. Aditya Rangga Yogatama & Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, 2015. "The Role of Democracy and Governance in the Enhancement of Indonesian Exports to the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries," Working Papers in Economics and Business 201504, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised Jul 2015.
    5. repec:spr:eurasi:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40821-016-0069-x is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Wu, Jun & Li, Shaomin & Samsell, Darryl, 2012. "Why some countries trade more, some trade less, some trade almost nothing: The effect of the governance environment on trade flows," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 225-238.
    7. Arjan Lejour & Vladimir Solanic & Paul Tang, 2009. "EU Accession and Income Growth: An Empirical Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 127-144, May.
    8. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2007. "Bilateral Trade Talk between Nigeria and India: A Recipe," MPRA Paper 46682, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Dec 2008.
    9. Chahir Zaki & Fida Karam, 2017. "Why Don’t MENA Countries Trade More? The Curse of Bad Institutions," Working Papers 1148, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 2003.
    10. Olivier Lamotte, 2003. "Disintegration and trade in South-eastern Europe," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04031, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).

    More about this item


    accession to the WTO; EU enlargement; gravity equation; institutions; transition;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General

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