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Exchange Rates and the EMS: Assessing the Track Record

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  • Artis, Michael J
  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

This paper attempts to provide some answers to a number of related questions. Has the European Monetary System reduced (real or nominal, bilateral or effective) exchange rate volatility? If so, has this been at the expense of increased interest rate volatility? How important have capital controls been for the operation of the EMS? Has the Exchange Rate Mechanism reduced the volatility of unanticipated exchange rate changes? Has the EMS been effective in making ERM currencies close substitutes? What have been the implications of the EMS for the longer-run stabilization of real exchange rates? Because of the uncertainty surrounding the statistical distributions of changes in asset prices in general and exchange rates in particular, an innovative theme of the paper is the use of nonparametric or semi-nonparametric econometric and statistical procedures wherever possible. An exception to this is in our analysis of shifts in the conditional variance of exchange rate changes, where we estimate autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) parameterizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Artis, Michael J & Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "Exchange Rates and the EMS: Assessing the Track Record," CEPR Discussion Papers 250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:250
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1995. "Interest rate linkages within the European Monetary System: an alternative interpretation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 45-47.
    3. M. Isabel García Gracia, 1995. "El SME: un modelo de comportamiento asimétrico," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 3, pages 41-68, Junio.
    4. Michael Artis & Dilip Nachane, 1990. "Wages and prices in Europe: A test of the German leadership thesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 126(1), pages 59-77, March.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1996. "Interest rate convergence, capital controls, risk premia and foreign exchange market efficiency in the EMS," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 693-714.
    6. Istemi. Demirag & Cristina De Fuentes, 1999. "Exchange rate fluctuations and management control in UK-based MNCs: an examination of the theory and practice," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 3-28.

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