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Trapped at Home: Weather Shocks, Income, and International Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Azémar, Céline
  • Desbordes, Rodolphe
  • Eberhardt, Markus
  • Neumayer, Eric

Abstract

By mid-century, climate change is expected to push millions of migrants across borders, yet direct empirical evidence is limited. Using recent monthly bilateral flow data for 127 developing-country origins and 180 destinations, we estimate migration responses to weather shocks. High-dimensional fixed-effects absorb all origin-, destination-, and migration corridor-by-year confounders, seasonality, and global shocks; identification exploits residual within-corridor weather anomalies. We find no evidence that climate stress raises emigration: higher origin temperatures reduce outflows, while precipitation has no effect. Complementary analysis pinpoints depressed origin income as an underlying mechanism: climate stress tightens household budgets, decreasing the financial viability of international movement.

Suggested Citation

  • Azémar, Céline & Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus & Neumayer, Eric, 2026. "Trapped at Home: Weather Shocks, Income, and International Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 21634, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21634
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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