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Averting Mortality, Enabling Mobility: Health and Economic Impacts of HIV Treatment at Scale

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Huan
  • Baranov, Victoria
  • Dickerson, Sarah
  • Barofsky, Jeremy

Abstract

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV/AIDS has expanded rapidly across low-income countries since 2000, generating large gains in life expectancy. Exploiting spatial and temporal variation in ART availability, this paper examines the health and economic consequences of ART introduction across a comprehensive set of outcomes in rural Malawi, a low-income setting with high HIV prevalence. We find that ART substantially reduces prime-age mortality. Although these health gains raise individual prime-age labor supply, total household labor supply and household earnings are unchanged. We show that this divergence reflects the outward migration of prime-age household members, particularly men. Consistent with this mechanism, households receive sizable increases in remittances. Our findings identify migration as an important, but previously overlooked channel through which health shapes household economic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Huan & Baranov, Victoria & Dickerson, Sarah & Barofsky, Jeremy, 2026. "Averting Mortality, Enabling Mobility: Health and Economic Impacts of HIV Treatment at Scale," CEPR Discussion Papers 21553, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21553
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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