The Century of State Failure: A Fiscal History of China, 1850-1949

We examine the fiscal trajectory of the Chinese state from the late Qing period to the founding of the People’s Republic of China. To do so, we construct the first continuous tax revenue and public debt series and interpret the trends in the context of the era's political and economic developments. Our findings indicate that China's state capacity remained low throughout this period, a pattern that reflects the central government’s failure to monopolize control over violence. This persistent weakness had lasting consequences, not only shaping the political landscape but also hindering economic modernization.