Settlers and Seekers: Immigrant Proximity and Voter Polarisation

This study explores the crucial role of local immigration history in shaping the relationship between the arrival of refugees and support for anti-immigration parties. Using unique georeferenced individual-level survey data, we show that opening refugee hosting facilities close to voters polarises support for anti-immigration parties: in neighbourhoods with established immigrant communities such support reduces, while it increases in areas with fewer long-term immigrants. These findings are consistent when using official electoral outcomes. We extend the analysis beyond the direct effect of exposure to immigrants by examining the role of voters’ demographics. Our results are mainly driven by male, childless, and low-skilled working-age voters. Moreover, facilities that highlight the presence of short-term immigrants amplify the main effects. These findings underscore the importance of considering both the composition of the immigrant population and individual demographics to fully understand how contact influences voter behaviour. Crucially, by examining the interplay between long- and short-term immigrant presence, our study provides a unifying framework that explains the polarised voter responses to refugee shocks, reconciling contrasting outcomes observed in different contexts.