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Robust difference-in-differences analysis when there is a term structure

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  • Nyborg, Kjell G.
  • Woschitz, Jiri

Abstract

Difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis is commonly used to study fixed-income pricing. Using simulations, we show that the standard DiD approach applied to variables with a term structure systematically produces false and mismeasured treatment effects, even under random treatment assignment. Standard DiD is misspecified because of endemic heterogeneity over the maturity spectrum and non-matched treated and control-bond samples. Neither bond fixed effects nor standard term-structure controls resolve the problem. We provide solutions using term-structure modeling that allow for heterogeneous effects over the maturity spectrum. These issues are not unique to DiD analysis, but are generic to group-assignment settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyborg, Kjell G. & Woschitz, Jiri, 2024. "Robust difference-in-differences analysis when there is a term structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 18782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18782
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    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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