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System-wide Dividend Restrictions: Evidence and Theory

Author

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  • Ampudia, Miguel
  • Muñoz, Manuel A.
  • Smets, Frank
  • Van der Ghote, Alejandro

Abstract

We provide evidence that the ECB system-wide dividend recommendation (SWDR) of March 2020 contributed to sustain lending, had a negative but moderate and transitory impact on bank stock prices and largely operated as a deferral of dividend payouts rather than as a dividend cut. Then, we develop a quantitative macro-banking DSGE model that accounts for this evidence and captures the key mechanism through which SWDRs operate to study the general equilibrium effects of the ECB SWDR. The measure contributed to sustain aggregate bank lending and mitigate the adverse impact of the COVID-19 shock on economic activity by safeguarding euro area banks’ capitalization. Welfare-maximizing SWDRs stabilize the economy regardless of the shock type but they only induce significant welfare gains in response to financial shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ampudia, Miguel & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Smets, Frank & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2023. "System-wide Dividend Restrictions: Evidence and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 18467, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18467
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    2. Couaillier, Cyril & Reghezza, Alessio & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Scopelliti, Alessandro, 2025. "How to release capital requirements in an economic downturn? Evidence from euro area credit register," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Salvatore Federico & Andrea Modena & Luca Regis, 2025. "Coordinating Bank Dividend and Capital Regulation," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 746 JEL Classification: C, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    4. Sanders, Emiel & Simoens, Mathieu & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2024. "Curse and blessing: The effect of the dividend ban on euro area bank valuations and syndicated lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Salvatore Federico & Andrea Modena & Luca Regis, 2025. "The Power of Faith: Effects of an Imam-led Information Campaign on Labor Supply and Social Interactions," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_622, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    6. Fulvia Fringuellotti & Thomas Kroen, 2024. "Payout Restrictions and Bank Risk-Shifting," Staff Reports 1123, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Dautović, Ernest & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Reghezza, Alessio, 2023. "Supervisory Policy Stimulus: Evidence from the Euro Area Dividend Recommendation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18175, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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