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Is Capital Account Convertibility Required for the Renminbi to Acquire Reserve Currency Status?

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Macaire, Camille
  • Mehl, Arnaud
  • Monnet, Eric
  • Naef, Alain

Abstract

It is widely assumed that the renminbi (RMB) cannot acquire a meaningful place in central bank reserve portfolios without full liberalization of China’s capital account. We argue that the RMB can in fact develop into a consequential reserve currency in the absence of capital account convertibility. Trade and investment links can drive official use and accumulation despite limited access to Chinese financial markets. But this route to currency internationalization requires policy support. China must allow access to RMB through loans and People’s Bank of China (PBoC) currency swaps. It must ensure convertibility of RMB into US dollars on offshore markets. It must provide these RMB services at a stable and predictable price. Currency internationalization without full capital account liberalization thus requires the RMB to be backed by dollar reserves, which the PBOC consequently will continue to hold and use. Hence we do not foresee RMB internationalization as supplanting dollar dominance.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry & Macaire, Camille & Mehl, Arnaud & Monnet, Eric & Naef, Alain, 2022. "Is Capital Account Convertibility Required for the Renminbi to Acquire Reserve Currency Status?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17498
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    4. Colin Weiss, 2022. "Geopolitics and the U.S. Dollar's Future as a Reserve Currency," International Finance Discussion Papers 1359, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Jacek Suder, 2024. "Perspektywy internacjonalizacji chińskiego renminbi," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(6), pages 785-808.
    6. Alina Iancu & Gareth Anderson & Sakai Ando & Ethan Boswell & Andrea Gamba & Shushanik Hakobyan & Lusine Lusinyan & Neil Meads & Yiqun Wu, 2022. "Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 879-915, November.
    7. Bahaj, Saleem & Reis, Ricardo, 2024. "The anatomy of a peg: lessons from China's parallel currencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 18749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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