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Strategic or Confused Firms? Evidence from “Missing†Transactions in Uganda

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  • Tian, Lin
  • Almunia, Miguel
  • Hjort, Jonas
  • Knebelmann, Justine

Abstract

Are firms sophisticated maximizers, or do they consistently make errors? Using transaction-level data from Ugandan value-added tax (VAT) returns, we show that sellers and buyers report different amounts 79% of the time, despite invoices being easily cross-checked. We estimate that 25% of firms are disadvantageous misreporters—they systematically misreport own sales and purchases such that their tax liability increases—while 75% are advantageous misreporters. Many firms—especially disadvantageous misreporters—fail to report imported inputs they themselves reported at Customs, increasing their VAT liability. On net, unilateral VAT misreporting cost Uganda about US$384 million in foregone 2013-2016 tax revenue.

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  • Tian, Lin & Almunia, Miguel & Hjort, Jonas & Knebelmann, Justine, 2021. "Strategic or Confused Firms? Evidence from “Missing†Transactions in Uganda," CEPR Discussion Papers 16379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16379
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    Cited by:

    1. Bachas, Pierre & Gadenne, Lucie & Jensen, Anders, 2020. "Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1277, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Denis Cogneau & Yannick Dupraz & Justine Knebelmann & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2021. "Taxation in Africa from Colonial Times to Present Evidence from former French colonies 1900-2018," PSE Working Papers halshs-03420664, HAL.
    3. Arun Advani, 2022. "Who does and doesn't pay taxes?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 5-22, March.
    4. Waseem, Mazhar, 2023. "Overclaimed refunds, undeclared sales, and invoice mills: Nature and extent of noncompliance in a value-added tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    5. Jonas Hjort & Golvine de Rochambeau & Vinayak Iyer & Fei Ao, 2020. "Informational Barriers to Market Access: Experimental Evidence from Liberian Firms," NBER Working Papers 27662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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