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Sistema de Inferencia Difuso para la Inflación en Colombia

Author

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  • Mónica Enciso Pulido
  • Andrés Acosta Hernández
  • Jacobo Campo Robledo

Abstract

ResumenSIDIC es un sistema de inferencia difuso que considera valoraciones subjetivas, las cuales son aproximadas a valores precisos, esto es aplicado a variables económicas consideradas determinantes de la inflación y su aplicación muestra una nueva posibilidad para el análisis y pronóstico de uno de los indicadores macroeconómicos con mayor relevancia en las decisiones que deben tomar las autoridades económicas. Los resultados de la aplicación de este sistema muestran el comportamiento esperado, en este sentido, se puede afirmar que la aplicación de la lógica difusa a un problema como proyectar la tasa de inflación anual, es válido y se convierte en una herramienta adecuada y contrastable.AbstractSIDIC is a fuzzy inference system that considers subjective assessments, which are approximated to accurate values, applying to economic variables considered as determinants of inflation and its application shows a new possibility for analyzing and forecasting of one of the most relevant indicators of the decisions that should make by the economic authorities. The results of the implementation of this system show the expected behavior, in this sense, we can say that the application of fuzzy logic to a problem as predict the annual inflation rate is valid and becomes a suitable tool and comparable.

Suggested Citation

  • Mónica Enciso Pulido & Andrés Acosta Hernández & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2012. "Sistema de Inferencia Difuso para la Inflación en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 9815, Universidad Católica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000444:009815
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    Keywords

    Lógica clásica; lógica difusa; función de pertenencia; sistema de inferencia difuso; difusificación; defusificación; reglas difusas: Classical logic; fuzzy logic membership function; fuzzy inference system; difusificación; defuzzification; fuzzy rules.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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