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La hipótesis de déficits gemelos en Colombia, 2000 – 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Daniel Rojas Martínez
  • Franky Juliano Galeano Ramírez

Abstract

Este documento examina las relaciones causales entre el déficit fiscal y el déficit en cuenta corriente para Colombia desde 2000:Q2 hasta 2016:Q4. En concreto, se quiere corroborar la validez de la “hipótesis de déficits gemelos” en el caso colombiano. Por lo cual, se sigue un análisis descriptivo de cada uno de los balances y un ejercicio econométrico, con ayuda de un modelo estructural de vectores autorregresivos aumentado con una variable exógena (SVAR-X), para determinar la existencia o no de causalidad. Los resultados obtenidos, de acuerdo con el enfoque utilizado, indican que no existe causalidad estadística entre los balances y que el reciente deterioro simultáneo se debe al efecto del choque externo en los precios de materias primas.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Daniel Rojas Martínez & Franky Juliano Galeano Ramírez, 2017. "La hipótesis de déficits gemelos en Colombia, 2000 – 2016," Econógrafos, Escuela de Economía 15916, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000176:015916
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    File URL: http://fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/docs/econografos-escuela-economia/116-la-hipotesis-de-deficits-gemelos-en-colombia-2000-2016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cuenta Corriente; Déficit Fiscal; Déficits Gemelos; Vectores Autorregresivos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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