Tren interoceánico elevado del Chocó: ambición logística, riesgo fiscal y decisiones por etapas

This paper assesses the feasibility of the Chocó Interoceanic Railway project in Colombia, a government initiative aimed at connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans via a ~267 km rail corridor. Using an economic engineering and public economics framework, we estimate its costs, benefits, and risks through international benchmarks and robust methodologies designed to mitigate optimistic bias. The valuation incorporates Reference Class Forecasting (RCF), applying prudential cost uplifts of 44% (P50) and 66% (P80) to baseline estimates. Cash flows are discounted at a 5% real social discount rate. The findings reveal three critical challenges. First, the officially estimated capital expenditures (CAPEX) are substantially lower than international benchmarks, which suggest an investment between COP 107 and 320 trillion (USD 100–300 million/km). Second, under realistic CAPEX and operating expenditure (OPEX) assumptions, the benefit-cost (B/C) ratio does not robustly exceed the viability threshold of 1. Third, the project's annualized fiscal pressure on the National General Budget (PGN) is estimated to be between 5% and 8%, a level incompatible with the available fiscal space, which would crowd out priority investments in sectors such as health or education. Instead of dismissing the project, a modular and conditional roadmap is recommended. The suggested public policy is to advance in phased sections, authorizing future budgetary commitments (vigencias futuras) only after meeting verifiable milestones: nearly complete engineering designs (~80%), secured environmental and land permits (≥95%), and a B/C ratio of P50 ≥ 1 for each section. Without these safeguards, committing large-scale future resources represents an imprudent fiscal risk.